Global markets move into Q2 2026 in a very different configuration from January. The year began with optimism around AI-led earnings growth, fiscal support, and the lagged benefits of earlier rate cuts. That narrative has been interrupted, though not fully derailed by the sharp escalation of the US–Iran–Israel conflict, a meaningful oil shock, and renewed debate over how "sticky" inflation really is.

Equities have given back part of 2025's strong gains, volatility has reset higher, oil is trading in a structurally higher band, and gold has reasserted itself as a core hedge. At the same time, global growth remains more resilient than feared, and major institutions still see an environment of slower but positive expansion rather than imminent recession.